The Implications Of The U.S.-Israeli- Iranian War On Nigerians – By Kazeem Akintunde
The distance between Nigeria and Israel is approximately 3,642 kilometres (2,263 miles). If you are to fly directly from Lagos to Tel Aviv, it will take about 4 hours. However, because there are no direct flights, you may spend between 15 to 20 hours depending on layover. Again, the distance between Nigeria and Iran is approximately 5,297 and flight time between both countries takes around 10 to 11 hours. The direct air distance between Nigeria and the USA is approximately 10,661 to 10,671 kilometres (about 6,624 to 6,630 miles). A flight from Lagos to Washington DC or New York typically takes between 11 and 14 hours, depending on the route and stopovers.
When the world woke up on Saturday, February 28 to witness US-Israeli strikes on Iran which led to the death of the country’s Supreme Leader, Ali Ayatollah Khomenei and scores of their military and political leaders, many Nigerians would have marked themselves ‘safe’ believing that the conflict is several kilometers away from our shores. However, the reality in the last few days has shown that such an assumption is far from the truth. Iran did not fold its arms and watch the US and Isreal pummel it with bombs. It retaliated across the entire Gulf region, hitting not just Israel, but multiple Gulf states hosting significant U.S assets.
In hours, airports across the middle east shut down. Ships hesitated, and the global market turned red for most nations. If any Nigerian is still thinking that this is a “foreign war” that may not have any impact on him, a visit to any fuel station would erase that thought. Whether we like it or not, Nigeria and several other nations are now bearing the brunt of the needless war amongst the trio. We are already feeling its impact economically, as the world is now a global village.
Let us start with the most obvious economic impact – the oil market. Twenty-four hours after hostilities began, the price of Brent crude was quoted around $80 in over-the-counter-trade, roughly a 10 per cent spike, because traders were pricing and adjusting to the nightmare scenario-disruption at the Strait of Hormuz. Many are already predicting that crude oil price could climb to $100 if the conflict dragged beyond a few weeks. And the reason for this is not hard to see. Hormuz — a narrow maritime passage connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea is considered the sole sea route connecting the Gulf’s oil and gas producers to global markets, making it one of the world’s most strategically vital waterways. When the route is threatened, the cost of energy, alongside other commodities, is bound to be affected. That corridor is controlled by Iran, with the support of China, but the USA is now assuring vessels of adequate protection. In spite of the assurance, many shipping lines are not willing to take the risk, disrupting the World Supply Chain channel. About 20 million barrels of oil per day is said to move through the Strait, representing about 20 to 25 percent of the world’s seaborne oil trade and roughly one-fifth of global fuel consumption. Again, around 20 percent of global LNG and nearly 11 percent of total global maritime trade transit this critical waterway. Given the importance of this passageway and its potential disruption, some of the shipping companies have introduced new surcharges including CMA, CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd. This will likely translate to higher shipping costs for essential imports to the continent on fuel, fertilizers, food grains, and industrial components from global partners.
Another direct consequence of the war is that Saudi Arabia’s Aramco oil company has shut down its Ras Tanura Oil Refinery following a fire sparked by debris from an Iranian drone attack at the facility. Even without widespread damage to oil infrastructure anywhere else, producers, traders, and insurers can still freeze the system. And that is exactly what is happening to the global oil supply chain. In Nigeria, while we could rejoice that it would generate more money into the federal account, which bases our budget on crude oil selling at $64.85 per barrel. Even with crude currently selling at $92,54, we still import some of our refined petroleum, meaning that we have to pay more for refined petroleum products. Fuel price at filing stations across the country has risen by more than 15 per cent since the war began. Traders are already predicting that it would pass the N1,200 per litre mark before the end of the month if the war continues.
Nigeria, despite being an oil producer, has historically depended on imported refined petroleum products. Rising global crude prices typically translate into higher petrol and diesel costs, increasing transportation expenses, manufacturing input costs and food prices. Such pressures could fuel inflation and weaken household purchasing power.
Though Dangote Petroleum Refinery came to our rescue at a critical time, the refinery, designed to process large volumes of crude domestically, has begun reshaping Nigeria’s downstream landscape by reducing dependence on imported refined products. In theory, expanded local refining could cushion Nigeria from extreme international fuel price swings by lowering freight costs and reducing exposure to foreign exchange pressures tied to fuel imports.
Yet, domestic refining does not entirely insulate Nigeria from global price movements. Crude oil remains priced in international markets, meaning local pump prices are still influenced by global benchmarks. If crude prices surge significantly due to prolonged conflict, domestic refined product prices will continue to rise. More misery for you and I.
Again, financial markets are likely to reflect this mixed outlook. While oil-linked equities could gain, broader market sentiment may turn cautious if global investors retreat to safe-haven assets. Emerging market currencies often come under pressure during geopolitical crises, and the Naira could face renewed volatility if capital outflows intensify.
Ultimately, the impact of the U.S.–Iran conflict on Nigeria will depend on the duration of hostilities and the scale of disruption to global supply chain. A contained crisis that sustains moderately higher prices could strengthen Nigeria’s fiscal position and reinforce the strategic relevance of its crude and refining capacity. A prolonged or expanding conflict however, could heighten inflation, strain consumers, and test financial stability despite improved oil revenues.
Looking at the cost-of-living crisis versus purchasing power in Nigeria, there have been some positive trends in terms of headline inflation tapering down a bit, and food inflation declining in the past months. However, a very important point to note is that the purchasing power of average Nigerians is declining. This is in addition to the fact that energy, in terms of gas, diesel, and petrol are critical to the other economic variables – particularly in Nigeria – whether it is agriculture, small and medium enterprises, transportation, and even large-scale enterprises. Everybody uses one form of power or the other. And by and large, 65% of the informal sector in Nigeria power their businesses by themselves, so, they have to pay higher for petrol, for their vehicles. Those that power for business have to pay higher for diesel. Consequently, there will be a direct impact on the economy because they will definitely have to pass the costs to the consumers.
Coming to the aviation sector, this is perhaps the mix where the crisis in the Middle East has thrown the sector into panic mode. Countries across the Middle East have closed their airspace. Major hubs such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Doha have shut or severely restricted operations, with thousands of flights cancelled. Most airlines reroute around the conflict zones, meaning longer journeys, higher fuel consumption, chaotic crew scheduling, and higher ticket prices, where available. Nigeria’s business travellers, students, and tourists are caught in the middle. A friend left the Middle East one hour before the war broke out. At present, Nigeria’s Christian Pilgrims Welfare Board (CPWB) has suspended pilgrimage to Jerusalem, Israel, and Jordan for now. Several Nigerians who have paid for Umrah at the ongoing Ramadan fast are now left in the lurch.
Tourism, a major income stream for most of the Middle Eastern countries has taken a hit. Gulf cities are not only oil capitals; they are world-class service economies. Dubai reported a 19.59 million overnight tourist rate in 2025, and its airport handled 95.2 million passengers. Qatar reported 5.1 million visitors in 2025 with strong occupancy. These numbers matter for Nigeria because the Gulf is both a destination and a transit platform. When that platform is damaged or perceived as unsafe, global travel demands shift. Conferences are postponed, leisure travels are canceled, and airlines cut capacity. The shock is not just “fewer flights,” it is fewer deals, fewer visits, fewer partnerships, and weaker confidence in crossborder commerce.
Many tourists have been stranded in the Middle East countries as there are no flights to take them home. But their hosts have been fantastic, directing hotels to take care of their guests while promising to pick the bills.
Back home, security agents are on red alert to prevent possible break down of law and order. This is because the Islamic Movement in Nigeria (IMN), a pro-Iran-aligned Shia group led by Ibrahim El-Zakzaky, has historically organised protests in solidarity with Iran, particularly in Abuja and Kaduna. Indeed, there were pockets of rallies and demonstrations in Abuja and Kaduna when the news broke that Khamenei was killed during the attack on Iran. Now, Abuja is on lockdown as security agents patrol the streets daily.
The war may be several thousands of miles away, but its impact on Nigeria and Nigerians would be felt significantly. This is another avoidable war stoked by the ego of those at the helm of world affairs and despite the huge cost to the initiators. The war is costing the United States of America (USA) $92 million daily. Israel is spending close to that amount, while Iran has vowed to continue to defend itself. By extension, the entire Middle East has been dragged into the war and the consequences would be felt all over the continent including by those of us in Africa.
It is hoped that reason would prevail soon and the war mongers would not drag the whole world into World War 3.
See you next week.
- Akintunde is a journalist and columnist
